Words by Cam Cox
This year’s Fall Classic is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory, with some of the most captivating storylines. On one side are the American League champion Tampa Bay Rays; on the other, the National League champion Milwaukee Brewers. The two teams are so similar that it’s hard to pick a winner. Both franchises are chasing their first World Series title. The Rays are making their third appearance in their 29 seasons as a franchise, while the Brewers are making their second, and their first since 1982.
Built Alike
Both teams were the best in their respective leagues this season and finished first and second in wins across the majors. Milwaukee set a franchise record with 103 wins on its way to the NL Central title, while the Rays won 98 games battling through an AL East that sent not one but two other teams to the playoffs, the Red Sox and the Yankees. What makes it remarkable is that both clubs sit in the bottom third in payroll: the Brewers rank 19th at $142 million, and the Rays rank 28th at $90 million. Yet these two led the league in wins.
The Rotations
Now let’s get to the on-field play, starting with the rotations. The Brewers’ staff is led by Jacob Misiorowski, a hard-throwing righty who is sure to take home the NL Cy Young Award. If the series goes seven, we could see him in Games 1, 4, and 7, or even closing out a game if needed, because he has been that dominant. Logan Henderson and Robert Gasser are expected to start the remaining games, and both have held their own in their playoff starts. Still, the Brewers have kept their starters on a short leash: across their six combined starts, none of the three has reached even 10 innings this postseason.
The Rays, on the other hand, have let their starters go deeper into games, and it has paid off in wins while saving the bullpen. The three-man rotation of Drew Rasmussen, Freddy Peralta, and Nick Martinez has been tested and passed with flying colors. Martinez will get the ball in Game 1, setting up a matchup with Misiorowski. Peralta, whom the Brewers traded to the Mets this past offseason before the Mets dealt him to Tampa Bay at the trade deadline, found his form down the stretch and earned ALCS MVP honors, much to the dismay of Mets fans. It’s also a full-circle moment for him, since he pitched for these same Brewers just last season. I’m giving the Rays a slight edge in the rotation simply because of the innings their starters have provided in the playoffs.
The Lineups
By regular-season numbers, the lineups are about as evenly matched as they can be. The two teams tied for the lead in team batting average at .258, and they’re separated by a single point in slugging percentage, with the Brewers at .403 and the Rays at .402. The key factor for the Rays is that they’re a high-contact team that struck out the fewest times in baseball this season. That will matter against Miz’s fastball and Milwaukee’s arsenal of bullpen arms. If the Rays can grind out long at-bats and keep the pressure on Brewers pitchers, they can chase the starters even earlier and push Milwaukee deep into its bullpen.
The Rays out-homered the Brewers this season, 169 to 154, but much of that edge comes from Junior Caminero, who hit 42 on his own. The Brewers, meanwhile, outpaced Tampa Bay in extra-base hits. Speed will also play a role in this series, because both managers love to put the running game in motion. Both teams finished in the top five in stolen bases, and the Rays have the AL stolen-base champion in Chandler Simpson, whose speed can change a game.
The Managers
Honestly, the biggest factor in this series will be the managers. Kevin Cash and Pat Murphy are both well-respected game managers who seem to push all the right buttons. Both preach clean baseball and believe in winning with small ball. In the postseason, it’s not about how many home runs you can hit; it’s about whether you can execute the hit-and-run and the sacrifice bunt while limiting physical and mental errors. The key will be how each manager handles their starting pitchers and bullpen. Whoever has the best feel for the moment and for his pitchers will win this series. We’ve seen Cash questioned before for pulling a pitcher based on analytics, so it will be interesting to see whether he goes with his gut this time.
The Pick
My head can’t call a winner because these teams are so evenly matched, but my heart says the third time’s the charm for the Rays. What I do know is that in these final games of the season, we’ll see some quality baseball, and one fan base will celebrate its first World Series title.
Words by Cam Cox on behalf of the Black Baseball Mixtape